BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+15%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 68% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.2–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+68%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 68% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.2–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.51.23.8
20272.51.23.8
20282.51.23.8
20292.51.23.8
20302.51.23.8

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA222025
PostTEXAS182024
Frankel CityTEXAS162022
MentoneTEXAS122015
HobbsNEW-MEXICO92025
LamesaTEXAS92025
CircleTEXAS82023
MiamiTEXAS82025
TwichellTEXAS82025
MidlandTEXAS72025
HookerOKLAHOMA62025
PlainsTEXAS62017
PepNEW-MEXICO52024
ChanningTEXAS52018
GruverTEXAS52025
San SimonNEW-MEXICO42019
PantexTEXAS42025
WakaTEXAS42025
FloydadaTEXAS42025
KermitTEXAS41999
SkellytownTEXAS42025
Kermit 2TEXAS42024
RosebudNEW-MEXICO32025
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO32021
LoganNEW-MEXICO32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.