BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+24%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.3–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.3–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.51.23.8
20262.51.23.8
20272.61.33.8
20282.61.33.9
20292.61.33.9

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA242024
PostTEXAS182024
MiamiTEXAS182024
CactusTEXAS171994
Frankel CityTEXAS162022
HobbsNEW-MEXICO142024
MidlandTEXAS132024
MentoneTEXAS122015
RankinTEXAS92024
TwichellTEXAS92023
CircleTEXAS82023
PanhandleTEXAS82024
FloydadaTEXAS72024
StilesTEXAS62024
PlainsTEXAS62017
DalhartTEXAS62024
PepNEW-MEXICO52024
ChanningTEXAS52018
WakaTEXAS52024
SedanNEW-MEXICO42024
San SimonNEW-MEXICO42019
HookerOKLAHOMA42024
KermitTEXAS41999
Kermit 2TEXAS42024
RosebudNEW-MEXICO32023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.