BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 536% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+536%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 536% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 46% by 2030 — from 0.44 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.21–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.65Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 46% by 2030 — from 0.44 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.21–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.600.171.0
20270.610.181.1
20280.630.191.1
20290.640.201.1
20300.650.211.1

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SaffellARKANSAS72019
MaynardARKANSAS52025
AugustaARKANSAS42001
EnglandARKANSAS42025
Augusta 2ARKANSAS32016
EudoraARKANSAS22025
HarrisburgARKANSAS22002
Hickory RidgeARKANSAS22022
GillettARKANSAS22025
UlmARKANSAS22025
HughesARKANSAS12019
South BendARKANSAS12013
LafeARKANSAS12022
KelsoARKANSAS12014
WilsonARKANSAS12010
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS12023
ConcordLOUISIANA12017
DundeeMISSISSIPPI12018
BlodgettMISSOURI12025
KennettMISSOURI12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.