BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-13%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 7.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.0 (95% range 4.8–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.8–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 7.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.0 (95% range 4.8–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.14.913
20269.14.913
20279.14.913
20289.14.913
20299.04.813

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CookietownOKLAHOMA562006
WeinertTEXAS451994
ColonyOKLAHOMA431995
GirardTEXAS432023
CashionOKLAHOMA422024
ArapahoOKLAHOMA392014
ElginOKLAHOMA342016
CoopertonOKLAHOMA332024
CharlieTEXAS322024
Shields 2TEXAS322023
ReedOKLAHOMA282019
ChildressTEXAS272024
BookerTEXAS272024
HackberryTEXAS262024
EldoradoTEXAS262023
HollisOKLAHOMA242024
RotanTEXAS242024
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA231994
ShieldsTEXAS232001
HawleyTEXAS222024
AshlandKANSAS212021
GrimesOKLAHOMA212024
WoodwardOKLAHOMA212024
Ft Sill WestOKLAHOMA211994
Pear ValleyTEXAS212024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.