BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-17%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 7.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 4.7–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 7.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 4.7–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.04.813
20279.04.813
20288.94.813
20298.94.713
20308.94.713

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CookietownOKLAHOMA562006
GirardTEXAS532025
WeinertTEXAS451994
ColonyOKLAHOMA431995
CashionOKLAHOMA422024
GrimesOKLAHOMA402025
ArapahoOKLAHOMA392014
HollisOKLAHOMA342025
ElginOKLAHOMA342016
RandlettOKLAHOMA332025
CoopertonOKLAHOMA332025
ChildressTEXAS292025
ReedOKLAHOMA282019
HackberryTEXAS262024
EldoradoTEXAS262023
BookerTEXAS242025
RotanTEXAS242024
Beaver CreekTEXAS242025
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA231994
ShieldsTEXAS232001
CharlieTEXAS232025
AshlandKANSAS212021
Ft Sill WestOKLAHOMA211994
HaskellTEXAS212025
HawleyTEXAS212025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.