BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-51%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher has fallen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.5 (95% range 0.36–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.36–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.5 (95% range 0.36–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.80.654.9
20262.70.584.9
20272.70.514.8
20282.60.434.7
20292.50.364.7

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChandlerTEXAS442004
McalesterOKLAHOMA331991
PhillipsOKLAHOMA272008
SandbluffOKLAHOMA251995
MatoyOKLAHOMA242000
CanadianOKLAHOMA212017
Chandler 2TEXAS212024
IndianolaOKLAHOMA172024
Coal HillARKANSAS152023
MassardARKANSAS132022
HavanaARKANSAS132021
StarkARKANSAS122024
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA92021
PocolaOKLAHOMA92016
MortonTEXAS92024
SmyrnaTEXAS92010
AshdownARKANSAS82023
AthensTEXAS82024
WechesTEXAS82024
CrossroadsTEXAS72024
Mt. SelmanTEXAS72024
Easton 2TEXAS72024
Smyrna 2TEXAS72023
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA62023
Liberty HillTEXAS62023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.