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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-48%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.32–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.32–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.70.604.9
20272.70.534.8
20282.60.464.7
20292.50.394.6
20302.40.324.6

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChandlerTEXAS442004
McalesterOKLAHOMA331991
SandbluffOKLAHOMA232025
CanadianOKLAHOMA212017
Chandler 2TEXAS212024
IndianolaOKLAHOMA182025
PhillipsOKLAHOMA162025
Coal HillARKANSAS152023
MassardARKANSAS132022
HavanaARKANSAS132021
MatoyOKLAHOMA122025
AthensTEXAS112025
Easton 2TEXAS112025
StarkARKANSAS92025
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA92021
PocolaOKLAHOMA92016
SmyrnaTEXAS92010
Smyrna 2TEXAS92025
AshdownARKANSAS82023
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA62023
Liberty HillTEXAS62023
BlancoOKLAHOMA52016
WechesTEXAS52025
CypressLOUISIANA41987
New WaverlyTEXAS42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.