BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-50%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 18 (95% range 11–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 18 (95% range 11–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025191226
2026191126
2027181126
2028181125
2029181125

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DuranTEXAS761999
RhomeTEXAS722024
HenriettaTEXAS492022
Three RiversTEXAS482024
MegargelTEXAS422024
LocoOKLAHOMA361985
HobsonTEXAS342024
OlneyTEXAS342024
WalburgTEXAS332024
GainesvilleTEXAS322024
Thornton 3TEXAS322024
DuncanOKLAHOMA312024
Whit Mtn.TEXAS302019
Oak GroveTEXAS291999
GrafordTEXAS292019
BriteTEXAS292024
Lone OakTEXAS282022
CreedmoreTEXAS272014
Thornton 2TEXAS252010
SchroederTEXAS241997
CottonwoodTEXAS242024
BeggsOKLAHOMA212023
AlbanyTEXAS212024
CleburneTEXAS212024
SkiatookOKLAHOMA202019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.