BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-52%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 10–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 10–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026181126
2027181125
2028181125
2029181025
2030171025

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DuranTEXAS761999
HobsonTEXAS562025
HenriettaTEXAS492022
WeatherfordTEXAS372025
BriteTEXAS372025
LocoOKLAHOMA361985
MegargelTEXAS362025
RhomeTEXAS342025
OlneyTEXAS342024
DuncanOKLAHOMA312025
Three RiversTEXAS312025
Massey LakeTEXAS302025
Whit Mtn.TEXAS302019
Oak GroveTEXAS291999
Lone OakTEXAS282022
CreedmoreTEXAS272014
WalburgTEXAS262025
Thornton 2TEXAS252010
SchroederTEXAS241997
BeggsOKLAHOMA212023
SkiatookOKLAHOMA202019
CottonwoodTEXAS192025
Arenosa CrkTEXAS182025
AlbanyTEXAS182025
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA162025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.