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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-60%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Edwards Plateau: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 6.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 2.3–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 6.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 2.3–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.62.814
20278.52.714
20288.32.614
20298.22.414
20308.02.314

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ManorTEXAS392024
Manor 2TEXAS222025
Pidcoke 2TEXAS142025
LeanderTEXAS142006
GeorgetownTEXAS131985
HarperTEXAS122025
San SabaTEXAS122025
BoerneTEXAS112025
FitzhughTEXAS91983
PidcokeTEXAS72017
MontellTEXAS72025
AdamsvilleTEXAS62025
Dripping SpgTEXAS62025
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS62025
Valley SpgsTEXAS42025
KempnerTEXAS32024
RockspringTEXAS32025
UtopiaTEXAS22025
LeakeyTEXAS22024
Indian MtnTEXAS12017
Allen CreekTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.