BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-62%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Edwards Plateau: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 7.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 2.6–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 7.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 2.6–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.93.115
20268.83.015
20278.62.814
20288.52.714
20298.42.614

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ManorTEXAS392024
Pidcoke 2TEXAS152024
LeanderTEXAS142006
GeorgetownTEXAS131985
FitzhughTEXAS91983
HarperTEXAS92024
San SabaTEXAS92024
Dripping SpgTEXAS82024
PidcokeTEXAS72017
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS72024
BoerneTEXAS62024
UtopiaTEXAS52024
Valley SpgsTEXAS42024
AdamsvilleTEXAS42024
MontellTEXAS42024
KempnerTEXAS32024
LeakeyTEXAS22024
RockspringTEXAS22024
Indian MtnTEXAS12017
Allen CreekTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.