BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 503% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+503%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 503% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.69–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.69–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.69–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.621.4
20271.00.641.5
20281.10.661.5
20291.10.671.5
20301.10.691.5

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FarwellARKANSAS492018
DiamondMISSOURI192025
CentertonARKANSAS142025
AvocaARKANSAS122024
RussellARKANSAS102021
ColcordOKLAHOMA102022
Ravenden SpringsARKANSAS52015
CassvilleMISSOURI52025
AkersMISSOURI52025
MillerMISSOURI52025
West PlainsMISSOURI52025
RupertARKANSAS42024
CentertownMISSOURI42025
BaronOKLAHOMA42022
HandleyMISSOURI32023
SedaliaMISSOURI32025
MincyMISSOURI32025
ZionARKANSAS22025
YellvilleARKANSAS22025
RudyARKANSAS22025
GraydonMISSOURI22024
HaydenMISSOURI22014
WilliamsvillMISSOURI22021
HildaMISSOURI22024
CraneMISSOURI22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.