BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 563% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+563%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 563% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.87 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.69–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.69–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.87 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.69–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.621.4
20261.00.631.5
20271.10.651.5
20281.10.671.5
20291.10.691.5

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FarwellARKANSAS492018
DiamondMISSOURI252024
CentertonARKANSAS172024
AvocaARKANSAS122024
RussellARKANSAS102021
ColcordOKLAHOMA102022
ReedsMISSOURI82023
FultonARKANSAS72024
Ravenden SpringsARKANSAS52015
RupertARKANSAS42024
RichlandMISSOURI42015
BaronOKLAHOMA42022
ZionARKANSAS32024
YellvilleARKANSAS32022
HandleyMISSOURI32023
MincyMISSOURI32024
RudyARKANSAS22024
CassvilleMISSOURI22024
AkersMISSOURI22024
GraydonMISSOURI22024
HaydenMISSOURI22014
CentertownMISSOURI22013
WilliamsvillMISSOURI22021
HildaMISSOURI22024
SedaliaMISSOURI22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.