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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend in Kansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Kansas has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-11%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.0 (95% range 1.6–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.0 (95% range 1.6–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.91.64.3
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Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ashland2120211969
Pittsburg1620212000
Coldwater1520221969
Reece1120242000
Barclay820241967
Le Loup820212000
Melrose720231967
Morehead720242000
Humboldt620221968
Coats620241967
Dalton520241968
Thrall419701967
Wellington420241968
Buckeye420231967
Kanopolis420241967
Bucyrus420242022
Lincolnville420242002
Galesburg320241967
Olathe320211968
Missler320191978
Jewell 2320242007
Berwet320242000
Goessel320232000
Solomon320191985
Wreford220241968

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoillinoiskentuckylouisianamississippimissourinebraskanew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomatennesseetexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.