BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in New Mexico has surged: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+173%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher has surged in New Mexico: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to rise about 123% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.52–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+123%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.91Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.52–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to rise about 123% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.52–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.860.471.2
20270.870.481.3
20280.890.491.3
20290.900.511.3
20300.910.521.3

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hobbs920251994
Pep520241992
San Simon420191979
Bitter Lake420242001
Sabinoso320212006
Logan320252008
Rosebud320252016
Pastura220142014
Cooley Lake220252005
Roswell220231970
Clovis120141995
Floyd120191970
Variadero120222011
Caprock120241997
Sedan120252005
Lakewood120172006

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamississippimissourinebraskanorth-carolinaoklahomatennesseetexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.