BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in New Mexico has surged: up 197% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+197%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher has surged in New Mexico: up 197% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.57–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.94Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.57–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.57–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.880.511.3
20260.900.521.3
20270.910.541.3
20280.920.551.3
20290.940.571.3

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hobbs1420241994
Pep520241992
San Simon420191979
Sedan420242005
Sabinoso320212006
Logan320242008
Rosebud320232016
Pastura220142014
Roswell220231970
Clovis120141995
Bitter Lake120232001
Cooley Lake120242005
Floyd120191970
Variadero120222011
Caprock120241997
Lakewood120172006

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamississippimissourinebraskanorth-carolinaoklahomatennesseetexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.