BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in New Mexico has surged: up 197% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+197%Since 1980
16Routes In State
42Years

Notable Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Trends in New Mexico

long arc increasecomputed index

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher has surged in New Mexico: up 197% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.57–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2029
0.94Projected 2029 index
0.57–1.395% range
±39.9%Backtest error
19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.880.511.3
20260.900.521.3
20270.910.541.3
20280.920.551.3
20290.940.571.3

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in New Mexico.
Hobbs1420241994
Pep520241992
San Simon420191979
Sedan420242005
Sabinoso320212006
Logan320242008
Rosebud320232016
Pastura220142014
Roswell220231970
Clovis120141995
Bitter Lake120232001
Cooley Lake120242005
Floyd120191970
Variadero120222011
Caprock120241997
Lakewood120172006

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamississippimissourinebraskanorth-carolinaoklahomatennesseetexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.