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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Oklahoma has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-32%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.2–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.2–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.2–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026126.817
2027126.717
2028126.517
2029116.317
2030116.216

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cookietown5620061968
Colony4319951995
Cashion4220241992
Grimes4020251967
Arapaho3920141992
Loco3619851967
Elgin3420161994
Hollis3420251993
Mcalester3319911967
Randlett3320251967
Cooperton3320251992
Duncan3120251986
Reed2820191968
Wainwright2520131992
Sandbluff2320251992
Wichita Mtns2319941994
Clear Lake2220251993
Canadian2120171967
Beggs2120231967
Ft Sill West2119941994
Erick2020241969
Sickles2020211992
Ft Sill East2019941994
Skiatook2020191982
Verden1920171967

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamississippimissourinebraskanew-mexiconorth-carolinatennesseetexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.