BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend in Missouri

All statesAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Missouri has surged: up 262% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+262%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher has surged in Missouri: up 262% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.1 (95% range 0.71–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.71–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.1 (95% range 0.71–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.651.5
20271.10.661.5
20281.10.681.6
20291.10.691.6
20301.10.711.6

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Diamond1920252015
Milford920252015
Cassville520251967
Akers520251982
Miller520252014
West Plains520252014
Centertown420251983
Handley320231972
Sni Mills319811967
Mincy320252016
Sedalia320251992
Norborne220212009
Graydon220241981
Filley220251975
Hayden220142014
Woodlandville220132013
Harrisonville220252017
Williamsvill220212009
Hilda220242015
Crane220251994
Pulaski120252004
Peace Valley120192015
Sweden120251977
Pineville120241980
Cameron120192019

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamississippinebraskanew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomatennesseetexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.