BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-54%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 107% by 2030 — from 0.42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.41–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+107%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.87Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 107% by 2030 — from 0.42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.41–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.860.401.3
20270.870.401.3
20280.870.401.3
20290.870.401.3
20300.870.411.3

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WainwrightOKLAHOMA252013
PittsburgKANSAS162021
CollinsvilleOKLAHOMA152021
WelchOKLAHOMA142025
ReeceKANSAS122025
PeoriaOKLAHOMA112023
KeetonvilleOKLAHOMA102022
MilfordMISSOURI92025
Le LoupKANSAS82021
MelroseKANSAS72023
GalesburgKANSAS72025
MoreheadKANSAS72025
ForakerOKLAHOMA72025
HumboldtKANSAS62022
BucyrusKANSAS62025
ThrallKANSAS41970
BarclayKANSAS42025
LincolnvilleKANSAS42024
OlatheKANSAS32021
Trading PostKANSAS32025
Sni MillsMISSOURI31981
WrefordKANSAS22024
SenecaKANSAS22012
LongtonKANSAS22021
FilleyMISSOURI22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.