BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-47%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 126% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.45–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+126%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.91Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.45–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 126% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.45–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.900.441.4
20260.900.441.4
20270.900.451.4
20280.910.451.4
20290.910.451.4

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WainwrightOKLAHOMA252013
PittsburgKANSAS162021
CollinsvilleOKLAHOMA152021
WelchOKLAHOMA122024
ReeceKANSAS112024
PeoriaOKLAHOMA112023
MilfordMISSOURI102024
KeetonvilleOKLAHOMA102022
BarclayKANSAS82024
Le LoupKANSAS82021
MelroseKANSAS72023
MoreheadKANSAS72024
HumboldtKANSAS62022
ThrallKANSAS41970
BucyrusKANSAS42024
LincolnvilleKANSAS42024
OhioMISSOURI42024
GalesburgKANSAS32024
OlatheKANSAS32021
Sni MillsMISSOURI31981
WrefordKANSAS22024
SenecaKANSAS22012
LongtonKANSAS22021
Trading PostKANSAS22024
FilleyMISSOURI22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.