BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 12–50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 12–50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026311250
2027311250
2028311250
2029311250
2030311250

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HondoTEXAS562025
Millett 2TEXAS412024
Agua NuevaTEXAS402023
DilleyTEXAS342025
George WestTEXAS312025
Encinal 2TEXAS302025
SejitaTEXAS292024
KingsvilleTEXAS272024
ProgresoTEXAS272011
LaredoTEXAS272023
RandadoTEXAS252025
ZapataTEXAS241987
La PryorTEXAS242017
MillettTEXAS242012
EncinalTEXAS222010
RaymondvilleTEXAS222025
Catarina 3TEXAS212025
CatarinaTEXAS202010
El SauzTEXAS202023
Catarina 2TEXAS182017
San YgnacioTEXAS171985
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS162025
RachalTEXAS122025
Mirando CityTEXAS122025
El IndioTEXAS122007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.