BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-16%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 32 (95% range 13–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 32 (95% range 13–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025321351
2026321351
2027321351
2028321351
2029321351

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RachalTEXAS552023
HondoTEXAS442024
Millett 2TEXAS412024
Agua NuevaTEXAS402023
DilleyTEXAS402024
George WestTEXAS342024
Encinal 2TEXAS332024
SejitaTEXAS292024
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS282023
KingsvilleTEXAS272024
ProgresoTEXAS272011
LaredoTEXAS272023
ZapataTEXAS241987
La PryorTEXAS242017
RaymondvilleTEXAS242024
MillettTEXAS242012
GuerraTEXAS232023
EncinalTEXAS222010
Catarina 3TEXAS222024
CatarinaTEXAS202010
El SauzTEXAS202023
Catarina 2TEXAS182017
San YgnacioTEXAS171985
RandadoTEXAS162024
Mirando CityTEXAS152024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.