Guild · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Aerial Insectivores In Vermont
16 species in this guild. As a group they are -56% since 1968.
Guild Signals
guild collapsecomputed index
Aerial insectivores as a group have fallen sharply in Vermont, down 56% since 1968.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in Vermont is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.22–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-47%Change by 2029
1.4Projected 2029 index
0.22–2.795% range
±22%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.8 | 0.56 | 3.0 |
| 2026 | 1.7 | 0.47 | 2.9 |
| 2027 | 1.6 | 0.39 | 2.8 |
| 2028 | 1.5 | 0.30 | 2.8 |
| 2029 | 1.4 | 0.22 | 2.7 |
Member Species In Vermont
| Bank Swallow | Hirundinidae | -93% |
| Cliff Swallow | Hirundinidae | -82% |
| Eastern Kingbird | Tyrannidae | -79% |
| Barn Swallow | Hirundinidae | -79% |
| Chimney Swift | Apodidae | -77% |
| Olive-sided Flycatcher | Tyrannidae | -75% |
| Tree Swallow | Hirundinidae | -72% |
| Purple Martin | Hirundinidae | -71% |
| Yellow-bellied Flycatcher | Tyrannidae | -62% |
| Least Flycatcher | Tyrannidae | -46% |
| Great Crested Flycatcher | Tyrannidae | -37% |
| Eastern Wood-Pewee | Tyrannidae | -17% |
| Eastern Phoebe | Tyrannidae | -16% |
| Northern Rough-winged Swallow | Hirundinidae | +34% |
| Willow Flycatcher | Tyrannidae | +100% |
| Alder Flycatcher | Tyrannidae | +242% |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.