BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vermilion Flycatcher

TyrannidaeAerial insectivoresPyrocephalus rubinus

Vermilion Flycatcher has surged: up 268% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+268%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
155RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Vermilion Flycatcher

The Vermilion Flycatcher (Pyrocephalus rubinus) is a North American member of the Tyrant Flycatchers (Tyrannidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the aerial insectivores.

Size
4.5–9 in long (12–23 cm) — a small to medium flycatcher (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open airspace over fields, water and towns; nests in cavities, earthen banks or on structures.
Diet
Flying insects caught on the wing.
Range
Recorded on 155 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 9 states, most concentrated in the Chihuahuan Desert.
Family
Tyrannidae · Aerial insectivores

Notable Vermilion Flycatcher TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Vermilion Flycatcher. See the full index history below.

Vermilion Flycatcher Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.04–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.04–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.040.07
20260.050.040.07
20270.050.040.07
20280.060.040.07
20290.060.040.07

Where the Vermilion Flycatcher Is Detected

BBS routes recording Vermilion Flycatcher, sized by most recent count.

Vermilion Flycatcher Population Trend by State

Vermilion Flycatcher population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona+92%197031
Californiainsufficient datan/a3
Coloradoinsufficient datan/a1
Louisianainsufficient datan/a1
Nevadainsufficient datan/a4
New Mexico+335%199311
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a2
Texas+189%1969101
Utahinsufficient datan/a1

Vermilion Flycatcher Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Vermilion Flycatcher population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+46%20073
Shortgrass Prairie-77%198811
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+113%19699
Edwards Plateau+153%197018
Oaks and Prairies+12%197117
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts+61%198716
Sierra Madre Occidental+4%197018
Chihuahuan Desert+371%197427
Tamaulipan Brushlands+407%197026
Gulf Coastal Prairie-19%19986

Vermilion Flycatcher Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 268% since 1969. Aerial insectivores have fallen sharply across the continent, a decline widely linked to dwindling insect prey.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.