Vermilion Flycatcher
Vermilion Flycatcher has surged: up 268% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
About the Vermilion Flycatcher
The Vermilion Flycatcher (Pyrocephalus rubinus) is a North American member of the Tyrant Flycatchers (Tyrannidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the aerial insectivores.
- Size
- 4.5–9 in long (12–23 cm) — a small to medium flycatcher (typical for the family)
- Habitat
- Open airspace over fields, water and towns; nests in cavities, earthen banks or on structures.
- Diet
- Flying insects caught on the wing.
- Range
- Recorded on 155 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 9 states, most concentrated in the Chihuahuan Desert.
- Family
- Tyrannidae · Aerial insectivores
Notable Vermilion Flycatcher Trends
No notable trend signals for Vermilion Flycatcher. See the full index history below.
Vermilion Flycatcher Population Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.04–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| 2026 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| 2027 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| 2028 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| 2029 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
Where the Vermilion Flycatcher Is Detected
BBS routes recording Vermilion Flycatcher, sized by most recent count.
Vermilion Flycatcher Population Trend by State
| Arizona | +92% | 1970 | 31 |
| California | insufficient data | n/a | 3 |
| Colorado | insufficient data | n/a | 1 |
| Louisiana | insufficient data | n/a | 1 |
| Nevada | insufficient data | n/a | 4 |
| New Mexico | +335% | 1993 | 11 |
| Oklahoma | insufficient data | n/a | 2 |
| Texas | +189% | 1969 | 101 |
| Utah | insufficient data | n/a | 1 |
Vermilion Flycatcher Population Trend by Region
Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.
| Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau | +46% | 2007 | 3 |
| Shortgrass Prairie | -77% | 1988 | 11 |
| Central Mixed Grass Prairie | +113% | 1969 | 9 |
| Edwards Plateau | +153% | 1970 | 18 |
| Oaks and Prairies | +12% | 1971 | 17 |
| Sonoran and Mojave Deserts | +61% | 1987 | 16 |
| Sierra Madre Occidental | +4% | 1970 | 18 |
| Chihuahuan Desert | +371% | 1974 | 27 |
| Tamaulipan Brushlands | +407% | 1970 | 26 |
| Gulf Coastal Prairie | -19% | 1998 | 6 |
Vermilion Flycatcher Conservation Status
Our route-weighted index shows it up about 268% since 1969. Aerial insectivores have fallen sharply across the continent, a decline widely linked to dwindling insect prey.
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.