BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vermilion Flycatcher In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Vermilion Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands has surged: up 407% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+407%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vermilion Flycatcher has surged in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 407% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.78–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.78–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.78–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.692.2
20261.40.712.2
20271.50.732.2
20281.50.762.2
20291.50.782.3

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Vermilion Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Catarina 3TEXAS62024
RachalTEXAS32023
George WestTEXAS32024
La PryorTEXAS32017
GuerraTEXAS32018
LaredoTEXAS32016
ZapataTEXAS21987
EncinalTEXAS22006
HondoTEXAS22024
El SauzTEXAS22023
Encinal 2TEXAS22023
Millett 2TEXAS22024
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS22013
Agua NuevaTEXAS12023
KingsvilleTEXAS11969
RandadoTEXAS12023
Mirando CityTEXAS12019
San YgnacioTEXAS11985
CatarinaTEXAS12010
El IndioTEXAS12007
RaymondvilleTEXAS11975
Catarina 2TEXAS12014
DilleyTEXAS12024
SejitaTEXAS12024
MillettTEXAS12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.