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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Vermilion Flycatcher In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauAerial insectivores

Vermilion Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+118%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vermilion Flycatcher has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Vermilion Flycatcher In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 79% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 1.7–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+79%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 79% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 1.7–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.31.65.1
20273.41.65.1
20283.41.65.2
20293.41.75.2
20303.51.75.2

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Vermilion Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LeakeyTEXAS62025
RockspringTEXAS62025
MontellTEXAS52025
HarperTEXAS42025
Allen CreekTEXAS32025
UtopiaTEXAS22025
Valley SpgsTEXAS22019
Dripping SpgTEXAS22025
Pidcoke 2TEXAS22025
BoerneTEXAS12024
GeorgetownTEXAS11979
FitzhughTEXAS11977
San SabaTEXAS12023
PidcokeTEXAS11985
KempnerTEXAS11992
AdamsvilleTEXAS12023
Indian MtnTEXAS12025
LeanderTEXAS11996
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.