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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vermilion Flycatcher In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauAerial insectivores

Vermilion Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+153%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vermilion Flycatcher has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Vermilion Flycatcher In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.5 (95% range 1.8–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.5 (95% range 1.8–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.41.65.1
20263.41.75.2
20273.51.75.2
20283.51.85.2
20293.51.85.3

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Vermilion Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
UtopiaTEXAS262024
LeakeyTEXAS92024
HarperTEXAS82024
MontellTEXAS52024
Dripping SpgTEXAS42024
Allen CreekTEXAS32024
Valley SpgsTEXAS22019
Indian MtnTEXAS22024
BoerneTEXAS12024
GeorgetownTEXAS11979
FitzhughTEXAS11977
San SabaTEXAS12023
PidcokeTEXAS11985
KempnerTEXAS11992
AdamsvilleTEXAS12023
LeanderTEXAS11996
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12023
RockspringTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.