BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vermilion Flycatcher In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauAerial insectivores

Vermilion Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+153%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vermilion Flycatcher has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.5 (95% range 1.8–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.5 (95% range 1.8–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.41.65.1
20263.41.75.2
20273.51.75.2
20283.51.85.2
20293.51.85.3

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Vermilion Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
UtopiaTEXAS262024
LeakeyTEXAS92024
HarperTEXAS82024
MontellTEXAS52024
Dripping SpgTEXAS42024
Allen CreekTEXAS32024
Valley SpgsTEXAS22019
Indian MtnTEXAS22024
BoerneTEXAS12024
GeorgetownTEXAS11979
FitzhughTEXAS11977
San SabaTEXAS12023
PidcokeTEXAS11985
KempnerTEXAS11992
AdamsvilleTEXAS12023
LeanderTEXAS11996
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12023
RockspringTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.