BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vermilion Flycatcher In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieAerial insectivores

Vermilion Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+113%Since 1969
9Routes In Region
44Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Vermilion Flycatcher has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029
0.08Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.2295% range
±70.3%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.080.000.22
20260.080.000.22
20270.080.000.22
20280.080.000.22
20290.080.000.22

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Vermilion Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
EldoradoTEXAS102023
Pear ValleyTEXAS22022
Mertzon 2TEXAS22024
ReedOKLAHOMA11991
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA12012
WinchellTEXAS12024
MertzonTEXAS12019
WallTEXAS12022
LakeviewTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.