BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Vermilion Flycatcher In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieAerial insectivores

Vermilion Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+26%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Vermilion Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Vermilion Flycatcher In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.000.22
20270.070.000.22
20280.070.000.21
20290.070.000.21
20300.070.000.21

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Vermilion Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EldoradoTEXAS102023
Mertzon 2TEXAS22024
ReedOKLAHOMA11991
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA12012
Pear ValleyTEXAS12025
WinchellTEXAS12024
MertzonTEXAS12019
WallTEXAS12022
LakeviewTEXAS12024
Shields 2TEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.