BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Vermilion Flycatcher Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Vermilion Flycatcher in New Mexico has surged: up 356% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

+356%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Vermilion Flycatcher Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vermilion Flycatcher has surged in New Mexico: up 356% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

Vermilion Flycatcher Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 0.25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.04–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 0.25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.04–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.020.31
20270.170.030.32
20280.170.030.32
20290.180.030.32
20300.180.040.33

Vermilion Flycatcher Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Vermilion Flycatcher in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Rock720251992
Floyd220252015
Pastura120112001
Reserve120232018
Laborcita120182018
Bitter Lake119991994
Laborcita 2120252025
Logan120032003
Cooley Lake120172010
Roswell120251971
Variadero119961996
Rodeo120212021

Vermilion Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradolouisiananevadaoklahomatexasutah

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.