BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vermilion Flycatcher Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Vermilion Flycatcher in New Mexico has surged: up 335% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

+335%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Vermilion Flycatcher Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vermilion Flycatcher has surged in New Mexico: up 335% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

Vermilion Flycatcher Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.17 (95% range 0.02–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.17 (95% range 0.02–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.010.30
20260.160.010.30
20270.160.020.30
20280.160.020.31
20290.170.020.31

Vermilion Flycatcher Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Vermilion Flycatcher in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Rock720241992
Pastura120112001
Reserve120232018
Laborcita120182018
Bitter Lake119991994
Logan120032003
Cooley Lake120172010
Floyd120152015
Roswell119711971
Variadero119961996
Rodeo120212021

Vermilion Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.