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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Vermilion Flycatcher Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Vermilion Flycatcher in Texas has surged: up 143% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+143%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Vermilion Flycatcher Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vermilion Flycatcher has surged in Texas: up 143% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Vermilion Flycatcher Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Texas is projected to rise about 66% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.32–0.88). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+66%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.60Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–0.8895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Texas is projected to rise about 66% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.32–0.88). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.580.300.86
20270.580.300.86
20280.590.310.87
20290.600.320.88
20300.600.320.88

Vermilion Flycatcher Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Vermilion Flycatcher in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eldorado1020231975
Catarina 3620242018
Leakey620251994
Rockspring620251994
Montell520251995
Hondo420251969
Harper420251969
Three Rivers420251998
Rachal320231970
George West320251969
La Pryor320171971
Guerra320181988
Laredo320162002
Langtry320002000
Allen Creek320251996
Ft. Stockton320122004
Toyahvale320191997
Quitman Cyn.320082000
Zapata219871969
Encinal220061969
Campbellton220231979
Stowell219711971
Utopia220251969
Valley Spgs220191967
Comstock220231975

Vermilion Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.