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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vermilion Flycatcher Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Vermilion Flycatcher in Texas has surged: up 189% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+189%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Vermilion Flycatcher Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vermilion Flycatcher has surged in Texas: up 189% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Vermilion Flycatcher Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Texas is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.34–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.34–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Texas is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.34–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.590.310.87
20260.590.320.87
20270.600.320.88
20280.610.330.88
20290.610.340.89

Vermilion Flycatcher Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Vermilion Flycatcher in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Utopia2620241969
Eldorado1020231975
Leakey920241994
Harper820241969
Catarina 3620242018
Montell520241995
Dripping Spg420241992
Rachal320231970
George West320241969
La Pryor320171971
Bear Mtn320242015
Guerra320181988
Laredo320162002
Langtry320002000
Allen Creek320241996
Ft. Stockton320122004
Toyahvale320191997
Quitman Cyn.320082000
Ft. Davis320232019
Zapata219871969
Encinal220061969
Campbellton220231979
Stowell219711971
Hondo220241969
Valley Spgs220191967

Vermilion Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.