BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Vermilion Flycatcher In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Vermilion Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental has held roughly steady: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+10%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Vermilion Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Vermilion Flycatcher In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.97Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.002.4
20271.000.002.4
20280.990.002.4
20290.980.002.4
20300.970.002.4

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Vermilion Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PomereneARIZONA182025
PatagoniaARIZONA82025
Peña BlancaARIZONA72025
AmadoARIZONA62025
SunizonaARIZONA51997
SahuaritaARIZONA52025
Skull ValleyARIZONA22024
RedingtonARIZONA22025
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA22025
San SimonARIZONA12016
CutterARIZONA12000
McnealARIZONA12025
Clay SpringARIZONA12022
Carr MtnARIZONA12011
PortalARIZONA12018
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12022
DragoonARIZONA11996
RuckerARIZONA12008
ReserveNEW-MEXICO12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.