BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vermilion Flycatcher In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Vermilion Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 371% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+371%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vermilion Flycatcher has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 371% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.20–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–0.9395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.20–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.540.170.90
20260.540.180.91
20270.550.190.92
20280.560.190.92
20290.560.200.93

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Vermilion Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red RockNEW-MEXICO72024
Bear MtnTEXAS32024
LangtryTEXAS32000
Ft. StocktonTEXAS32012
ToyahvaleTEXAS32019
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS32008
Ft. DavisTEXAS32023
ComstockTEXAS22023
AltudaTEXAS22023
OzonaTEXAS22022
Devils R CynTEXAS22011
RoswellNEW-MEXICO11971
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12021
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO12018
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO11999
Hot SpringsTEXAS11998
Black GapTEXAS12016
LongfellowTEXAS12024
Casa PiedraTEXAS12022
CastolonTEXAS12016
Coyanda DrawTEXAS12019
Sierra BlancTEXAS12021
MarathonTEXAS12022
Van HornTEXAS12023
PumpvilleTEXAS12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.