BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Vermilion Flycatcher In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Vermilion Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 337% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+337%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vermilion Flycatcher has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 337% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Vermilion Flycatcher In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.57 (95% range 0.20–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–0.9395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.57 (95% range 0.20–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.540.180.90
20270.550.190.91
20280.550.190.92
20290.560.200.92
20300.570.200.93

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Vermilion Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red RockNEW-MEXICO72025
LangtryTEXAS32000
Ft. StocktonTEXAS32012
ToyahvaleTEXAS32019
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS32008
ComstockTEXAS22023
LongfellowTEXAS22025
AltudaTEXAS22023
OzonaTEXAS22022
Devils R CynTEXAS22025
RoswellNEW-MEXICO12025
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12021
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO12018
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO11999
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO12025
Hot SpringsTEXAS11998
Black GapTEXAS12016
Casa PiedraTEXAS12022
Bear MtnTEXAS12025
Ozona 2TEXAS12025
CastolonTEXAS12025
Coyanda DrawTEXAS12019
Sierra BlancTEXAS12021
MarathonTEXAS12025
Ft. DavisTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.