BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vermilion Flycatcher In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Vermilion Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1998.

-19%Since 1998TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Vermilion Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Vermilion Flycatcher In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 196% by 2023 — from 0.08 in 2018 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+196%Change by 2023TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2023 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 196% by 2023 — from 0.08 in 2018 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712023
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20190.250.000.59
20200.240.000.59
20210.240.000.59
20220.240.000.59
20230.240.000.58

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Vermilion Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StowellTEXAS21971
San PedroTEXAS22018
GlencoeLOUISIANA11997
Loyola BeachTEXAS11999
BaysideTEXAS12003
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.