BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vermilion Flycatcher In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsAerial insectivores

Vermilion Flycatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+61%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vermilion Flycatcher has risen sharply in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 32% by 2028 — from 0.20 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±154.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±154.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vermilion Flycatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 32% by 2028 — from 0.20 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±154.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.240.000.59
20250.250.000.60
20260.250.000.60
20270.260.000.61
20280.260.000.61

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Vermilion Flycatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cutter 2ARIZONA322018
ArabyARIZONA32023
Red Rock 2ARIZONA32019
DatelandARIZONA22016
WickenburgARIZONA22023
Ash MeadowsNEVADA22017
WikieupARIZONA12004
LagunaARIZONA11969
AjoARIZONA12008
Red RockARIZONA12012
Cabeza PrietARIZONA12010
Casa GrandeARIZONA12018
Cactus ForestARIZONA12022
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA12023
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA12000
BeattyNEVADA12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.