BirdAnalyst
Guild · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Aerial Insectivores In Minnesota

All statesMinnesota

19 species in this guild. As a group they are +18%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for aerial insectivores in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Aerial Insectivores In Minnesota Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in Minnesota is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.4–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in Minnesota is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.4–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.32.46.2
20274.32.46.2
20284.32.46.2
20294.32.46.1
20304.22.46.1

Member Species In Minnesota

Aerial insectivores species in Minnesota.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Purple MartinHirundinidae-81%
Common NighthawkCaprimulgidae-71%
Chimney SwiftApodidae-67%
Bank SwallowHirundinidae-64%
Northern Rough-winged SwallowHirundinidae-57%
Eastern Whip-poor-willCaprimulgidae-52%
Olive-sided FlycatcherTyrannidae-38%
Western KingbirdTyrannidae-35%
Great Crested FlycatcherTyrannidae-27%
Eastern KingbirdTyrannidae-6%
Barn SwallowHirundinidae+8%
Eastern PhoebeTyrannidae+16%
Least FlycatcherTyrannidae+25%
Alder FlycatcherTyrannidae+46%
Tree SwallowHirundinidae+64%
Eastern Wood-PeweeTyrannidae+85%
Willow FlycatcherTyrannidae+206%
Cliff SwallowHirundinidae+279%
Yellow-bellied FlycatcherTyrannidae12×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.