BirdAnalyst
Guild · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Aerial Insectivores In Minnesota

All statesMinnesota

19 species in this guild. As a group they are +16%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for aerial insectivores in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Aerial Insectivores In Minnesota Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in Minnesota is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.4–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in Minnesota is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.4–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.42.56.3
20264.42.56.2
20274.42.56.2
20284.32.56.2
20294.32.46.2

Member Species In Minnesota

Aerial insectivores species in Minnesota.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Purple MartinHirundinidae-83%
Bank SwallowHirundinidae-74%
Common NighthawkCaprimulgidae-74%
Chimney SwiftApodidae-71%
Western KingbirdTyrannidae-63%
Northern Rough-winged SwallowHirundinidae-51%
Great Crested FlycatcherTyrannidae-39%
Olive-sided FlycatcherTyrannidae-31%
Eastern KingbirdTyrannidae-17%
Eastern Whip-poor-willCaprimulgidae-15%
Barn SwallowHirundinidae-5%
Eastern PhoebeTyrannidae-1%
Least FlycatcherTyrannidae+25%
Eastern Wood-PeweeTyrannidae+64%
Tree SwallowHirundinidae+69%
Alder FlycatcherTyrannidae+71%
Willow FlycatcherTyrannidae+125%
Cliff SwallowHirundinidae+292%
Yellow-bellied FlycatcherTyrannidae12×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.