Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Population Trend in Minnesota
Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Minnesota has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1970.
12×Since 1970
27Routes In State
56Years
Notable Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Trends in Minnesota
long arc increasecomputed index
Yellow-bellied Flycatcher has surged in Minnesota: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1970.
Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Population Forecast in Minnesota
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Minnesota is projected to rise about 96% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.85–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+96%Change by 2029
1.3Projected 2029 index
0.85–1.795% range
±22.5%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.2 | 0.78 | 1.6 |
| 2026 | 1.2 | 0.79 | 1.7 |
| 2027 | 1.3 | 0.81 | 1.7 |
| 2028 | 1.3 | 0.83 | 1.7 |
| 2029 | 1.3 | 0.85 | 1.7 |
Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Survey Routes in Minnesota
| Jordan | 15 | 2023 | 1993 |
| Sherry Lake | 13 | 2022 | 1970 |
| Floodwood | 8 | 2024 | 1970 |
| Waskish | 8 | 1994 | 1978 |
| Cromwell | 6 | 2024 | 1967 |
| Chisholm | 6 | 2024 | 2022 |
| Hovland | 5 | 2023 | 1978 |
| Sawbill Lndg | 5 | 2024 | 1973 |
| Mille Lacs | 4 | 2010 | 1996 |
| Hart Lake | 4 | 2024 | 1973 |
| Blackduck | 3 | 2019 | 2004 |
| Lockport | 2 | 2023 | 1967 |
| Crane Lake | 2 | 2024 | 1978 |
| Sawbill Camp | 2 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Cass Lake | 1 | 2006 | 2006 |
| Island Lake | 1 | 2013 | 2013 |
| Debs | 1 | 2009 | 2007 |
| Little Fork | 1 | 2023 | 2004 |
| Lude | 1 | 2010 | 2009 |
| Grygla | 1 | 2010 | 2010 |
| Nett Lake | 1 | 2021 | 2014 |
| Mahtowa | 1 | 2005 | 1994 |
| Mcgregor | 1 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Babbitt | 1 | 2018 | 1994 |
| Bigfork | 1 | 2019 | 2019 |
Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.