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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Minnesota has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

12×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher has surged in Minnesota: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Minnesota is projected to rise about 96% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.85–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+96%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.85–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Minnesota is projected to rise about 96% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.85–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.781.6
20261.20.791.7
20271.30.811.7
20281.30.831.7
20291.30.851.7

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jordan1520231993
Sherry Lake1320221970
Floodwood820241970
Waskish819941978
Cromwell620241967
Chisholm620242022
Hovland520231978
Sawbill Lndg520241973
Mille Lacs420101996
Hart Lake420241973
Blackduck320192004
Lockport220231967
Crane Lake220241978
Sawbill Camp220241993
Cass Lake120062006
Island Lake120132013
Debs120092007
Little Fork120232004
Lude120102009
Grygla120102010
Nett Lake120212014
Mahtowa120051994
Mcgregor120241993
Babbitt120181994
Bigfork120192019

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskamainemassachusettsmichigannew-hampshirenew-yorkpennsylvaniavermontwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.