BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in New York has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-52%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in New York. See the full index history below.

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±222.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±222.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±222.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.040.000.10
20250.040.000.10
20260.040.000.10
20270.040.000.10
20280.040.000.10

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horseshoe L.320162013
Highmarket219921992
Sabattis219711968
W Shokan120052005
St Regis Fls120131979
Mckeever119831976
Underwood 2120092005
Blue Ridge N119981970
Old Forge119871974
Blue Ridge S120061993
Newcomb119871972
Speculator120231970
Hope Falls119701970
Inlet120171985
Warrensburg120192019
Gabriels120191977
Hopkinton120212013
Tupper Lake119711970
Underwood119751975

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirepennsylvaniavermontwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.