BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesAerial insectivores

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Wisconsin has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+101%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher has surged in Wisconsin: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.15 (95% range 0.06–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±261.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±261.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.15 (95% range 0.06–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±261.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.050.24
20260.140.050.24
20270.150.050.24
20280.150.050.24
20290.150.060.24

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mather920032002
Eagle River520231966
Amberg520232001
Shanagolden220211975
Conover220222001
Manitowoc220052005
Chaffey120241968
Iron River119891989
Minong120131969
Grand View120212014
Montreal120191968
Land O Lakes120161977
Dresser119661966
Loraine120131966
Cumberland120011973
Weyerhauser120162008
Exeland119971970
Phillips120191982
Rib Lake120011970
Irma120181981
Mcnaughton120001987
Popple River120231971
Crandon119901981
Wausaukee120132012
Manawa119881988

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-yorkpennsylvaniavermont

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.