BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Population Trend in Michigan

All statesAerial insectivores

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Michigan has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+52%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher has risen sharply in Michigan: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.19
20260.080.000.19
20270.080.000.19
20280.080.000.19
20290.080.000.19

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brocky Lake420231981
Betchler Lks320231992
Gilchrist319901990
Ned Lake220241986
Muskallonge220151978
Pine River219931992
Bergland119821979
Marenisco119951981
Bootjack120071993
Herman120222022
Crystal Fls120221982
Gibbs City120191994
Maple Grove120091990
Ishpeming120211980
Wilson120091993
Cunard120062004
Shingleton120221985
Creighton119861978
Isabella120042004
Seney Nwr120162007
Sidnaw120242024
Scott'S Marsh120102010
Ensign120102006
Tahquamenon119911990
Raco120161990

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskamainemassachusettsminnesotanew-hampshirenew-yorkpennsylvaniavermontwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.