BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Swift

ApodidaeAerial insectivoresCypseloides niger

Black Swift has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-82%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Black Swift

The Black Swift (Cypseloides niger) is a North American member of the Swifts (Apodidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the aerial insectivores.

Size
4.5–7 in long (12–18 cm) — a small aerial bird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open airspace over fields, water and towns; nests in cavities, earthen banks or on structures.
Diet
Flying insects caught on the wing.
Range
Recorded on 80 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 9 states, most concentrated in the Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Family
Apodidae · Aerial insectivores

Notable Black Swift TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Swift. See the full index history below.

Black Swift Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Swift is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Swift is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.05
20260.000.000.05
20270.000.000.05
20280.000.000.05
20290.000.000.05

Where the Black Swift Is Detected

BBS routes recording Black Swift, sized by most recent count.

Black Swift Population Trend by State

Black Swift population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaskainsufficient datan/a2
California-30%197330
Coloradoinsufficient datan/a4
Idaho-68%19893
Montana-62%19904
New Mexicoinsufficient datan/a1
Oregoninsufficient datan/a1
Utahinsufficient datan/a1
Washington-92%197034

Black Swift Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Black Swift population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-82%197420
Great Basin-94%197018
Northern Rockies-73%198610
Sierra Nevada-86%19777
Coastal California-4%197319

Black Swift Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 82% since 1970. Aerial insectivores have fallen sharply across the continent, a decline widely linked to dwindling insect prey.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.