Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Black Swift In Great Basin
Black Swift in Great Basin has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
-94%Since 1970
18Routes In Region
46Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Black Swift has collapsed in Great Basin: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Black Swift in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1058.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.395% range
±1058.4%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.3 |
| 2026 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.3 |
| 2027 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.3 |
| 2028 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.3 |
| 2029 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.3 |
Routes In Great Basin
| Index | WASHINGTON | 20 | 1971 |
| Glacier | WASHINGTON | 10 | 2022 |
| L. Wenatchee | WASHINGTON | 10 | 2007 |
| Suiattle Riv | WASHINGTON | 9 | 2003 |
| Twisp | WASHINGTON | 5 | 2024 |
| Carlton | WASHINGTON | 5 | 2019 |
| Rimrock | WASHINGTON | 3 | 1987 |
| Mazama | WASHINGTON | 3 | 2001 |
| Ronald | WASHINGTON | 2 | 2017 |
| Lake Chelan | WASHINGTON | 2 | 2022 |
| Cascade Riv | WASHINGTON | 2 | 2003 |
| Cedarville | CALIFORNIA | 1 | 1994 |
| Newhalem | WASHINGTON | 1 | 2023 |
| Winthrop | WASHINGTON | 1 | 2008 |
| Leavenworth | WASHINGTON | 1 | 1989 |
| White Chuck | WASHINGTON | 1 | 2024 |
| No Cascades | WASHINGTON | 1 | 2014 |
| E. Mt. Adams | WASHINGTON | 1 | 1997 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.