Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Black Swift Population Trend in California
Black Swift in California has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1973.
-30%Since 1973
30Routes In State
39Years
Notable Black Swift Trends in California
No notable trend signals for Black Swift in California. See the full index history below.
Black Swift Population Forecast in California
If the recent trend holds, Black Swift in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2029
0.02Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.1895% range
±74.7%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| 2026 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| 2027 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| 2028 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| 2029 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
Black Swift Survey Routes in California
| Yolla Bolly | 48 | 1980 | 1980 |
| Holmes | 25 | 1999 | 1999 |
| Sanger | 10 | 2018 | 2018 |
| Lake Hemet | 8 | 1986 | 1972 |
| White River | 7 | 1992 | 1973 |
| Cal Hot Spgs | 7 | 2016 | 2007 |
| Angelus Oaks | 5 | 2017 | 1989 |
| Fallsvale | 4 | 1975 | 1975 |
| Rumsey | 3 | 1994 | 1994 |
| Jackson | 3 | 1992 | 1992 |
| Orange Cove | 3 | 2004 | 1977 |
| Waterman Gap | 3 | 2024 | 2016 |
| Cohasset | 3 | 1980 | 1980 |
| Carmel Val | 3 | 1983 | 1983 |
| Lockwood | 2 | 1986 | 1973 |
| Lake Success | 2 | 1996 | 1972 |
| Coyote | 2 | 1984 | 1984 |
| Mt Baldy | 1 | 2015 | 1971 |
| Kings Canyon | 1 | 2004 | 1974 |
| Fish Rock | 1 | 1978 | 1978 |
| Bass Lake | 1 | 2008 | 1975 |
| Coulterville | 1 | 1998 | 1998 |
| Foster Park | 1 | 1971 | 1971 |
| Kernville | 1 | 2008 | 2008 |
| Cedarville | 1 | 1994 | 1994 |
Black Swift Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.