Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Black Swift In Northern Pacific Rainforest
Black Swift in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1974.
-82%Since 1974
20Routes In Region
39Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Black Swift has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1974.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Black Swift in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 72% by 2028 — from 0.08 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-72%Change by 2028
0.02Projected 2028 index
0.00–0.3995% range
±72.4%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| 2025 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| 2026 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| 2027 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| 2028 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest
| Holmes | CALIFORNIA | 25 | 1999 |
| Carnation | WASHINGTON | 24 | 2017 |
| Warm Beach | WASHINGTON | 11 | 1994 |
| Stikine River | ALASKA | 8 | 2019 |
| Everett | WASHINGTON | 6 | 2023 |
| Cedar Falls | WASHINGTON | 6 | 1994 |
| Issaquah | WASHINGTON | 4 | 1984 |
| Mt Rainier | WASHINGTON | 4 | 2000 |
| Adair | OREGON | 3 | 1976 |
| Ozette | WASHINGTON | 2 | 1985 |
| Cougar | WASHINGTON | 2 | 1991 |
| Camas | WASHINGTON | 2 | 2008 |
| Packwood | WASHINGTON | 2 | 2018 |
| Hurricane Rg | WASHINGTON | 2 | 2010 |
| Mukilteo | WASHINGTON | 2 | 2016 |
| Hyder | ALASKA | 1 | 2000 |
| Fish Rock | CALIFORNIA | 1 | 1978 |
| Shasta Lake | CALIFORNIA | 1 | 1988 |
| Port Angeles | WASHINGTON | 1 | 1991 |
| Ilwaco | WASHINGTON | 1 | 1993 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.