BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Swift In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Black Swift in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-82%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Swift has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Black Swift In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Swift in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 72% by 2028 — from 0.08 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-72%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Swift in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 72% by 2028 — from 0.08 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.040.000.41
20250.040.000.40
20260.030.000.40
20270.030.000.40
20280.020.000.39

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Black Swift in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HolmesCALIFORNIA251999
CarnationWASHINGTON242017
Warm BeachWASHINGTON111994
Stikine RiverALASKA82019
EverettWASHINGTON62023
Cedar FallsWASHINGTON61994
IssaquahWASHINGTON41984
Mt RainierWASHINGTON42000
AdairOREGON31976
OzetteWASHINGTON21985
CougarWASHINGTON21991
CamasWASHINGTON22008
PackwoodWASHINGTON22018
Hurricane RgWASHINGTON22010
MukilteoWASHINGTON22016
HyderALASKA12000
Fish RockCALIFORNIA11978
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA11988
Port AngelesWASHINGTON11991
IlwacoWASHINGTON11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.