BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Swift In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesAerial insectivores

Black Swift in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-73%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Swift has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Black Swift In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Swift in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2018, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2018TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2018 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Swift in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2018, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682018
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20140.010.000.07
20150.010.000.07
20160.010.000.07
20170.000.000.07
20180.000.000.07

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Black Swift in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St RegisMONTANA61986
NorthportWASHINGTON51999
NaplesIDAHO42011
BurgdorfIDAHO41989
CurlewWASHINGTON31992
ArleeMONTANA21987
KellerWASHINGTON21968
CoolinIDAHO12001
Inside RoadMONTANA11990
Logan PassMONTANA12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.