BirdAnalyst
Guild · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Aerial Insectivores In North Dakota

All statesNorth Dakota

18 species in this guild. As a group they are +69%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for aerial insectivores in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Aerial Insectivores In North Dakota Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in North Dakota is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.5 (95% range 6.7–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.7–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in North Dakota is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.5 (95% range 6.7–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.26.412
20279.26.512
20289.36.512
20299.46.612
20309.56.712

Member Species In North Dakota

Aerial insectivores species in North Dakota.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Chimney SwiftApodidae-46%
Alder FlycatcherTyrannidae-6%
Barn SwallowHirundinidae-1%
Bank SwallowHirundinidae+8%
Western KingbirdTyrannidae+46%
Eastern PhoebeTyrannidae+51%
Western Wood-PeweeTyrannidae+64%
Eastern KingbirdTyrannidae+73%
Common NighthawkCaprimulgidae+96%
Northern Rough-winged SwallowHirundinidae+103%
Great Crested FlycatcherTyrannidae+152%
Cliff SwallowHirundinidae+154%
Eastern Wood-PeweeTyrannidae+173%
Willow FlycatcherTyrannidae+179%
Purple MartinHirundinidae+190%
Least FlycatcherTyrannidae+251%
Say's PhoebeTyrannidae+328%
Tree SwallowHirundinidae+750%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.