BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dusky-capped Flycatcher

TyrannidaeAerial insectivoresMyiarchus tuberculifer

Dusky-capped Flycatcher has surged: up 221% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+221%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Dusky-capped Flycatcher

The Dusky-capped Flycatcher (Myiarchus tuberculifer) is a North American member of the Tyrant Flycatchers (Tyrannidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the aerial insectivores.

Size
4.5–9 in long (12–23 cm) — a small to medium flycatcher (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open airspace over fields, water and towns; nests in cavities, earthen banks or on structures.
Diet
Flying insects caught on the wing.
Range
Recorded on 16 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 2 states, most concentrated in the Sierra Madre Occidental.
Family
Tyrannidae · Aerial insectivores

Notable Dusky-capped Flycatcher TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dusky-capped Flycatcher. See the full index history below.

Dusky-capped Flycatcher Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dusky-capped Flycatcher is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.01–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky-capped Flycatcher is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.01–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.010.03
20260.020.010.03
20270.020.010.03
20280.020.010.03
20290.020.010.03

Where the Dusky-capped Flycatcher Is Detected

BBS routes recording Dusky-capped Flycatcher, sized by most recent count.

Dusky-capped Flycatcher Population Trend by State

Dusky-capped Flycatcher population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona+155%197014
New Mexicoinsufficient datan/a2

Dusky-capped Flycatcher Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Dusky-capped Flycatcher population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Sierra Madre Occidental+39%197016

Dusky-capped Flycatcher Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 221% since 1970. Aerial insectivores have fallen sharply across the continent, a decline widely linked to dwindling insect prey.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.