BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dusky-capped Flycatcher In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Dusky-capped Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental has increased: up 39% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+39%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dusky-capped Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dusky-capped Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky-capped Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.004.1
20261.60.004.1
20271.60.004.0
20281.60.004.0
20291.50.004.0

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Dusky-capped Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RuckerARIZONA172009
Peña BlancaARIZONA162024
PortalARIZONA162024
PatagoniaARIZONA132024
SunizonaARIZONA31997
AmadoARIZONA31994
PomereneARIZONA21995
Carr MtnARIZONA22023
SprucedaleARIZONA22021
Sunizona 2ARIZONA22024
DragoonARIZONA22008
RedingtonARIZONA12022
Mt. GrahamARIZONA12023
SahuaritaARIZONA12015
ReserveNEW-MEXICO12022
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.