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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dusky-capped Flycatcher Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Dusky-capped Flycatcher in Arizona has surged: up 155% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+155%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dusky-capped Flycatcher Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dusky-capped Flycatcher has surged in Arizona: up 155% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Dusky-capped Flycatcher Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Dusky-capped Flycatcher in Arizona is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.91Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky-capped Flycatcher in Arizona is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.950.002.4
20260.940.002.4
20270.930.002.4
20280.920.002.4
20290.910.002.4

Dusky-capped Flycatcher Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Dusky-capped Flycatcher in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rucker1720091993
Portal1620241976
Peña Blanca1620241975
Patagonia1320241968
Sunizona319971968
Amado319941994
Dragoon220081995
Sunizona 2220242001
Carr Mtn220231998
Sprucedale220212008
Pomerene219951995
Redington120222010
Mt. Graham120232006
Sahuarita120152006

Dusky-capped Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

new-mexico

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.