BirdAnalyst
Guild · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Aerial Insectivores In Arizona

All statesArizona

28 species in this guild. As a group they are -13%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for aerial insectivores in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Aerial Insectivores In Arizona Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.41.13.7
20262.41.13.7
20272.41.13.6
20282.41.13.6
20292.31.13.6

Member Species In Arizona

Aerial insectivores species in Arizona.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Tree SwallowHirundinidae-86%
Common NighthawkCaprimulgidae-84%
Common PoorwillCaprimulgidae-80%
Western KingbirdTyrannidae-74%
Northern Rough-winged SwallowHirundinidae-56%
Northern Beardless-TyrannuletTyrannidae-45%
Cliff SwallowHirundinidae-42%
White-throated SwiftApodidae-39%
Say's PhoebeTyrannidae-16%
Cassin's KingbirdTyrannidae-12%
Black PhoebeTyrannidae-12%
Sulphur-bellied FlycatcherTyrannidae+4%
Greater PeweeTyrannidae+17%
Olive-sided FlycatcherTyrannidae+31%
Thick-billed KingbirdTyrannidae+36%
Gray FlycatcherTyrannidae+48%
Mexican Whip-poor-willCaprimulgidae+58%
Violet-green SwallowHirundinidae+63%
Ash-throated FlycatcherTyrannidae+77%
Vermilion FlycatcherTyrannidae+92%
Lesser NighthawkCaprimulgidae+106%
Willow FlycatcherTyrannidae+114%
Western Wood-PeweeTyrannidae+124%
Dusky FlycatcherTyrannidae+138%
Dusky-capped FlycatcherTyrannidae+155%
Barn SwallowHirundinidae+233%
Purple MartinHirundinidae+401%
Brown-crested FlycatcherTyrannidae+439%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.