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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Kingbird Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Cassin's Kingbird in Arizona has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-12%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cassin's Kingbird Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cassin's Kingbird in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Cassin's Kingbird Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Arizona is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 5.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Arizona is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 5.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.80.008.1
20262.70.008.0
20272.60.007.9
20282.50.007.8
20292.40.007.7

Cassin's Kingbird Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Cassin's Kingbird in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Peña Blanca4020241975
Skull Valley3720241996
Patagonia3420241968
Greasewood1920031995
Happy Jack1720241986
Mormon Lake1519741968
Sunizona1419971968
Sunizona 21420242001
Peach Spring1420241994
Dragoon1320091993
Pomerene1120241968
Rucker1120091993
Pinetop1020221993
Black Mesa919951989
Portal820241975
Zeniff819841969
Forest Lakes820241992
Clay Spring720241993
Castle Butte620071992
Amado620231993
Seligman620241991
Toroweap520241994
Hunt420181968
Blue419911975
Page420131993

Cassin's Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomasouth-dakotatexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.