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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cassin's Kingbird Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Cassin's Kingbird in Arizona has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-2%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cassin's Kingbird Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cassin's Kingbird in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Cassin's Kingbird Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Arizona is projected to fall about 56% by 2030 — from 5.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.00–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Arizona is projected to fall about 56% by 2030 — from 5.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.00–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.90.008.2
20272.80.008.1
20282.70.008.0
20292.60.007.9
20302.50.007.8

Cassin's Kingbird Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Cassin's Kingbird in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skull Valley3720241996
Patagonia2920251968
Skull Valley 22420252025
Happy Jack2020251986
Greasewood1920031995
Tonto Vill.1820251992
Peña Blanca1720251975
Mormon Lake1519741968
Sprucedale1520251992
Sunizona1419971968
Dragoon1320091993
Rucker1120091993
Seligman1120251991
Flagstaff1020251988
Forest Lakes1020251992
Pinetop1020221993
Sunizona 21020252001
Peach Spring1020251994
Black Mesa919951989
Portal920251975
Pomerene920251968
Castle Butte920251992
Zeniff819841969
Clay Spring720251993
Toroweap620251994

Cassin's Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomasouth-dakotatexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.