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Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Kingbird Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Cassin's Kingbird in New Mexico has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+2%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cassin's Kingbird Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cassin's Kingbird in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Cassin's Kingbird Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in New Mexico is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 4.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 4.5–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–9.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in New Mexico is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 4.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 4.5–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.94.39.6
20267.04.39.7
20277.14.49.7
20287.14.49.8
20297.24.59.9

Cassin's Kingbird Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Cassin's Kingbird in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pecos4420171973
La Cienega3920221968
Capitan Mtn.3920171993
Reserve3120231993
Mountainair2120241992
Nageesi1820241968
Fence Lake1820241975
La Plata 21620162014
La Plata1620131990
Maxwell1320241996
Claunch 21320242001
Farley1120241979
Deming1119741968
Salt Lake1120011999
Sedan1120241995
Sabinoso1120211980
Carrizozo1020241968
Variadero1020211994
Pinon1020241992
Ojo Sarco920241968
Magdalena920241997
Salt Lake 2820242002
Dulce820242000
Angel Fire 2820242005
Red Rock820231993

Cassin's Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.