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Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cassin's Kingbird Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Cassin's Kingbird in New Mexico has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-2%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cassin's Kingbird Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cassin's Kingbird in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Cassin's Kingbird Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in New Mexico is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 4.4–9.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.4–9.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in New Mexico is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 4.4–9.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.94.29.6
20276.94.29.6
20287.04.39.7
20297.04.39.7
20307.14.49.8

Cassin's Kingbird Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Cassin's Kingbird in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reserve4720251993
Pecos4420171973
La Cienega3920221968
Capitan Mtn.3920171993
Mountainair2120241992
La Plata 21620162014
La Plata1620131990
Fence Lake1420251975
Sedan1320251995
Cloudcroft1220251988
Angel Fire 21220252005
Horse Spgs1120251975
Deming1119741968
Dulce1120252000
Salt Lake1120011999
Sabinoso1120211980
Farley1020251979
Maxwell1020251996
Magdalena1020251997
Variadero1020211994
Pinon1020241992
Nageesi920251968
Rosebud820251996
Grenville720251968
Carrizozo720251968

Cassin's Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.