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Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cassin's Kingbird Population Trend in Montana

All statesAerial insectivores

Cassin's Kingbird in Montana has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-41%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cassin's Kingbird Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cassin's Kingbird in Montana. See the full index history below.

Cassin's Kingbird Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Montana is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±419.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±419.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Montana is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±419.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.000.41
20270.120.000.41
20280.120.000.41
20290.110.000.41
20300.110.000.41

Cassin's Kingbird Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Cassin's Kingbird in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brandenberg1320251979
Miles City820222022
Chuffey Spring320252023
Maynard Coulee220242024
Bull Mtn.220211995
Reed Point120252025

Cassin's Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradokansasnebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomasouth-dakotatexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.