BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Kingbird Population Trend in Utah

All statesAerial insectivores

Cassin's Kingbird in Utah has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+16%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cassin's Kingbird Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cassin's Kingbird in Utah. See the full index history below.

Cassin's Kingbird Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.44 (95% range 0.05–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.44Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.8295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.44 (95% range 0.05–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.420.040.81
20260.430.040.81
20270.430.040.82
20280.430.050.82
20290.440.050.82

Cassin's Kingbird Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Cassin's Kingbird in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hite4920231986
Hatch1020241994
Aneth920141987
Shivwitz520241997
Glen Canyon420241991
Canyonlands420161986
Canyonlands320061993
Moquith Mtn320241987
Hanksville220121991
Bicknell220082008
Green River220132010
Beryl220211988
Boulder120121989
Fayette119931993
Gilson Butte120042004
La Sal119981998
Lake Powell120072000
Canyon Rims120242003
Newcastle120102009
Alton120181997
Escalante120232006
La Sal 3120072007
Main Canyon119971997
Cane Spr Des119981993
Blanding120241987

Cassin's Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomasouth-dakotatexaswyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.