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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Kingbird Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Cassin's Kingbird in Texas has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-39%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cassin's Kingbird Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cassin's Kingbird in Texas. See the full index history below.

Cassin's Kingbird Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Texas is projected to rise about 85% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+85%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Texas is projected to rise about 85% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.410.000.90
20260.410.000.89
20270.400.000.89
20280.390.000.88
20290.390.000.87

Cassin's Kingbird Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Cassin's Kingbird in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Valentine3119871969
Ft. Davis2020232004
Shafter1619851969
Cornudas1620151968
Van Horn1220242017
Ozona920031997
Bear Mtn820241988
Delaware Crk820141972
Sierra Blanc720242000
Presidio620122004
Quitman Canyon 2520232011
Marathon420232004
Leakey320012001
Quitman Cyn.320082006
Frankel City320021976
Marfa220242004
Castolon219981998
Toyahvale220241997
Altuda220231968
Plains220081993
Texline220111981
Chisos Basin120192008
Pumpville120122006
Casa Piedra120191986
Cottonwood119701970

Cassin's Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomasouth-dakotautahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.