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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Pewee Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Greater Pewee in Arizona has edged up: up 17% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+17%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Greater Pewee Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Greater Pewee in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Greater Pewee Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Greater Pewee in Arizona is projected to fall about 67% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-67%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Pewee in Arizona is projected to fall about 67% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.29
20260.090.000.28
20270.090.000.28
20280.090.000.28
20290.090.000.28

Greater Pewee Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Greater Pewee in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Portal920241978
Mt. Graham420231995
Sunizona219831983
Aztec Peak219781975
Tonto Vill.120131994
Rucker120091995
Prescott120191993
Carr Mtn120041988
Sprucedale120212012

Greater Pewee Population Trend in Other States

new-mexico

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.