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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mexican Whip-poor-will Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Mexican Whip-poor-will in Arizona has risen sharply: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

+58%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mexican Whip-poor-will Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mexican Whip-poor-will has risen sharply in Arizona: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

Mexican Whip-poor-will Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Mexican Whip-poor-will in Arizona is projected to fall about 57% by 2028 — from 0.13 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mexican Whip-poor-will in Arizona is projected to fall about 57% by 2028 — from 0.13 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.050.000.11
20250.050.000.11
20260.050.000.11
20270.050.000.11
20280.050.000.11

Mexican Whip-poor-will Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Mexican Whip-poor-will in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt. Graham420231995
Tonto Vill.120132013
Dragoon120052005
Alpine120182017
Blue119901975
Sprucedale120232015

Mexican Whip-poor-will Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.