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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mexican Whip-poor-will Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Mexican Whip-poor-will in Arizona has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

+80%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mexican Whip-poor-will Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mexican Whip-poor-will in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Mexican Whip-poor-will Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Mexican Whip-poor-will in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mexican Whip-poor-will in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.050.000.11
20270.050.000.11
20280.050.000.11
20290.050.000.11
20300.050.000.11

Mexican Whip-poor-will Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Mexican Whip-poor-will in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tonto Vill.120132013
Dragoon120052005
Alpine120182017
Mt. Graham120251995
Blue119901975
Sprucedale120252015

Mexican Whip-poor-will Population Trend in Other States

californianew-mexicotexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.