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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mexican Whip-poor-will Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Mexican Whip-poor-will in Arizona has risen sharply: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

+58%Since 1995
6Routes In State
20Years

Notable Mexican Whip-poor-will Trends in Arizona

long arc increasecomputed index

Mexican Whip-poor-will has risen sharply in Arizona: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

Mexican Whip-poor-will Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Mexican Whip-poor-will in Arizona is projected to fall about 57% by 2028 — from 0.13 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2028
0.05Projected 2028 index
0.00–0.1195% range
±65%Backtest error
19752028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20240.050.000.11
20250.050.000.11
20260.050.000.11
20270.050.000.11
20280.050.000.11

Mexican Whip-poor-will Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Mexican Whip-poor-will in Arizona.
Mt. Graham420231995
Tonto Vill.120132013
Dragoon120052005
Alpine120182017
Blue119901975
Sprucedale120232015

Mexican Whip-poor-will Population Trend in Other States

californianew-mexicotexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.