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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Brown-crested Flycatcher in Arizona has surged: up 439% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+439%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown-crested Flycatcher Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown-crested Flycatcher has surged in Arizona: up 439% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Brown-crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Arizona is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 4.4–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.4–9.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Arizona is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 4.4–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.74.09.3
20266.84.19.4
20276.94.29.5
20287.04.39.6
20297.14.49.7

Brown-crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Brown-crested Flycatcher in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Organ Pipe6120231990
Redington4720231993
Bates Well3720232003
Patagonia2720241971
Carr Mtn2720241985
Bartlett Res2120241992
Portal2020241976
Pomerene1920241968
Ajo 21920222009
Casa Grande1520221989
Lukeville1419811975
Cabeza Priet1220241994
Red Rock 21020242015
Cutter 2820182015
Florence619881968
Sahuarita620241992
Wickenburg620222017
Sunizona 2620242006
Amado520231999
Peña Blanca420241975
Red Rock420142001
Wikieup320181992
Vicksburg319721972
Laguna319851969
Alamo Res.320231992

Brown-crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.