Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Brown-crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Arizona
Brown-crested Flycatcher in Arizona has surged: up 439% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
+439%Since 1970
46Routes In State
56Years
Notable Brown-crested Flycatcher Trends in Arizona
long arc increasecomputed index
Brown-crested Flycatcher has surged in Arizona: up 439% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
Brown-crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Arizona
If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Arizona is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 4.4–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+57%Change by 2029
7.1Projected 2029 index
4.4–9.795% range
±30.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 9.3 |
| 2026 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 9.4 |
| 2027 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 9.5 |
| 2028 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 9.6 |
| 2029 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 9.7 |
Brown-crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Arizona
| Organ Pipe | 61 | 2023 | 1990 |
| Redington | 47 | 2023 | 1993 |
| Bates Well | 37 | 2023 | 2003 |
| Patagonia | 27 | 2024 | 1971 |
| Carr Mtn | 27 | 2024 | 1985 |
| Bartlett Res | 21 | 2024 | 1992 |
| Portal | 20 | 2024 | 1976 |
| Pomerene | 19 | 2024 | 1968 |
| Ajo 2 | 19 | 2022 | 2009 |
| Casa Grande | 15 | 2022 | 1989 |
| Lukeville | 14 | 1981 | 1975 |
| Cabeza Priet | 12 | 2024 | 1994 |
| Red Rock 2 | 10 | 2024 | 2015 |
| Cutter 2 | 8 | 2018 | 2015 |
| Florence | 6 | 1988 | 1968 |
| Sahuarita | 6 | 2024 | 1992 |
| Wickenburg | 6 | 2022 | 2017 |
| Sunizona 2 | 6 | 2024 | 2006 |
| Amado | 5 | 2023 | 1999 |
| Peña Blanca | 4 | 2024 | 1975 |
| Red Rock | 4 | 2014 | 2001 |
| Wikieup | 3 | 2018 | 1992 |
| Vicksburg | 3 | 1972 | 1972 |
| Laguna | 3 | 1985 | 1969 |
| Alamo Res. | 3 | 2023 | 1992 |
Brown-crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.