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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown-crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Brown-crested Flycatcher in Arizona has surged: up 442% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+442%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown-crested Flycatcher Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown-crested Flycatcher has surged in Arizona: up 442% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Brown-crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Arizona is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 4.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 4.3–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–9.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Arizona is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 4.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 4.3–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.63.99.3
20276.74.09.4
20286.84.19.5
20296.94.29.6
20307.04.39.7

Brown-crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Brown-crested Flycatcher in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Organ Pipe6120231990
Redington4320251993
Bates Well3720232003
Patagonia3320251971
Pomerene2820251968
Carr Mtn2720251985
Portal1920251976
Ajo 21920222009
Casa Grande1520221989
Lukeville1419811975
Bartlett Res1320251992
Red Rock 21020242015
Amado920251999
Sahuarita920251992
Cutter 2820182015
Cabeza Priet720251994
Florence619881968
Wickenburg620222017
Red Rock420142001
Wikieup320181992
Vicksburg319721972
Laguna319851969
Alamo Res.320231992
Oatman220171992
Quartzsite220151982

Brown-crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

californianevadanew-mexicotexasutah

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.