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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown-crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Brown-crested Flycatcher in Texas has increased: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+50%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown-crested Flycatcher Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown-crested Flycatcher in Texas. See the full index history below.

Brown-crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Texas is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.67–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.67–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Texas is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.67–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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Brown-crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Brown-crested Flycatcher in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Three Rivers7420251994
San Pedro4220231996
Mcfaddin4120162006
Agua Nueva3920231969
Goliad Prairie2320162004
Loyola Beach 22220252010
Guerra2120251988
Zapata2019871967
Sejita2020241994
Encinal 21820252011
Mirando City1720251970
Millett 21720242013
Cavasara Cr.1720251995
Lag Atascosa1620251969
L. Atascosa Nwr1620251998
Kingsville1520241967
Catarina 21520172011
Encinal1420101969
El Sauz1420231993
Raymondville1220251970
George West1120251968
Hondo1120251969
Randado1020251967
Hobson1020251971
Brite1020251994

Brown-crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.