BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Nighthawk Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Lesser Nighthawk in Arizona has surged: up 106% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+106%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lesser Nighthawk Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Nighthawk has surged in Arizona: up 106% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lesser Nighthawk Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Nighthawk in Arizona is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 1.3–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Nighthawk in Arizona is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 1.3–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.71.26.2
20263.71.36.2
20273.81.36.3
20283.81.36.3
20293.81.36.3

Lesser Nighthawk Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Lesser Nighthawk in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pomerene3020241968
San Simon2320241969
Araby1420231993
Hope1320091990
Dateland1120211991
Cutter 2920182015
Hope 2920192014
Cibola Lake720241993
Gila Bend620241995
Pisinimo619931992
Cabeza Priet520242001
New River420161976
Sahuarita420241993
Bates Well320211995
Cutter320141995
Red Rock320141995
Ajo 2320222009
Dragoon220091993
Wikieup220221992
Quartzsite220191974
Laguna220231968
Patagonia219941987
Sunizona219971968
Palo Verde 2220232014
Riviera220191993

Lesser Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

californianevadanew-mexicotexasutah

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.