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Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Nighthawk Population Trend in Nevada

All statesAerial insectivores

Lesser Nighthawk in Nevada has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-84%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lesser Nighthawk Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Nighthawk has collapsed in Nevada: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Lesser Nighthawk Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Nighthawk in Nevada is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±175.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±175.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Nighthawk in Nevada is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±175.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.39
20260.000.000.39
20270.000.000.39
20280.000.000.39
20290.000.000.39

Lesser Nighthawk Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Lesser Nighthawk in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Calico Spr919741974
Illipah919731972
Dobbin Creek519741974
Val Of Fire320242024
Vya219741974
Jean Lake120101973
Desert Nwr120122012
Ash Meadows120241993
Meadow Vally120011998
Majors Place119721972
Beatty120121986

Lesser Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.